Technology Giants as Global Gatekeepers: The Challenge of AI Restrictions and Investor Skepticism

The US government plans to tighten control over global AI chip access by imposing the role of gatekeepers on major technology companies. This effort, outlined in a new plan to be released later this month, aims to make it more difficult for China to access critical resources for developing its own AI capabilities. A key component of this plan requires companies to report sensitive information and block AI chip access to China while allowing artificial intelligence to be offered in the cloud overseas without a license. These developments have met with mixed reactions in the financial sector. Despite assurances from some tech giants that their high expenditures will pay off in the long term, the Blue Whale Capital investment fund has reduced its holdings in major US technology companies. Fund manager Stephen Yiu suggests that the enormous expenditures on AI are causing a strain on profit margins, which will have significant impacts, particularly in 2025. A report by the New York Times highlights the potential financial risks, especially in the example of OpenAI, which could face losses of up to $5 billion, mainly due to the costs of computing power provided by a key partner and investor. This intense financial burden raises questions about whether such investments can ultimately yield the expected returns. Jim Covello, head of global equity research at Goldman Sachs, questions whether current AI models justify the massive investments of a trillion dollars or more, while analysts remain skeptical. Emerging generative AI has already made significant advances in areas such as drug development and video clip creation. Nonetheless, the central question remains whether it will be possible to translate this potential into economically viable profits. Whether these technological breakthroughs eventually lead to the expected high returns will ultimately be revealed over time.