Robotaxis in Competition: Tesla and Waymo in the Race for the Future

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced that tests for the company's robotaxi utility, expected to begin on June 22, may be postponed. While Musk's forecasts are often considered optimistic, it looks bleak according to the platform Polymarket: the probability that Tesla will launch its service before July is only 30 percent. Meanwhile, Waymo, Alphabet's subsidiary, is quietly working on expanding its robotaxi operations in several U.S. cities such as San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. Waymo, considered a leader with its multimodal sensor technology, has long moved from experiments to commercial operations, while Tesla is in the midst of preparations for its tests in Austin. Market research by Goldman Sachs shows tremendous growth potential in the sector of autonomously operated ride services, with a value increase from the current $58 billion to over $330 billion expected by 2030. In this race for supremacy in the robotaxi sphere, Waymo's technology plays a significant role. With the "best and safest robotaxi solution," as they claim, Waymo has already published numerous safety data that go far beyond what is legally required. Tesla, on the other hand, relies on a vision-only system, which exclusively uses neural networks and is applied in millions of vehicles. A notable difference between the two companies lies in production volume. While Waymo currently produces around 1,500 vehicles annually, Tesla has the capacity to produce over two million electric vehicles a year. But both players face the challenge of reducing costs to compete with established mobility providers. Waymo has a considerable lead and is now offering its service in more cities, with new markets in Atlanta, Miami, and Washington D.C. to be added in 2026. This is enabled by the strong support of Alphabet, which provides Waymo with a stable basis for strategic growth and technological innovation. Despite Waymo's technically superior position, the outcome of the competition for the future of autonomous mobility is not yet sealed.