New Railway Line Proposed as a Solution for Impending Capacity Shortages between London and Manchester

A recently published study by private sector specialists, including Arup and Mace, warns that a new railway line needs to be built to avoid impending transport capacity constraints between England's largest cities within the next decade. According to the report, an 80-kilometer stretch could be implemented faster and more cost-effectively than the canceled segment of the High-Speed 2 (HS2) project. This line would meet the growing demand in the London-Manchester corridor while keeping costs below the original plans. The expert opinion, presented in Manchester on Friday, also outlines similar capacity issues on the M6 motorway, which runs from the Midlands to the Scottish border. From both an economic and operational perspective, inaction is not a viable option to support growth in the country's chronically underperforming regional cities, according to the authors. The context of the analysis was former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's decision to cancel the northern segment of the prestigious HS2 project between Manchester and Birmingham last October due to cost concerns. Since then, economic and political leaders from the Midlands and the North have warned of unresolved capacity issues on the west coast. In May, the National Infrastructure Commission projected a sharply rising rail demand for Manchester and Birmingham in the coming years. Chairman Sir John Armitt warned that without an alternative to HS2, the growth of regional cities would be hindered. The plan to create a new line between Birmingham and Manchester is essential for regional economic development. A consortium led by former HS2 chairman Sir David Higgins and headed by Arup has examined various route and financing models for an alternative route on behalf of the mayors of Greater Manchester and the West Midlands. The study concludes that a new line could be built in two sections – from Lichfield in the West Midlands to Crewe and further to High Legh in Cheshire – and would utilize the land already secured for HS2, potentially recouping £2 billion in sunk costs. The cost of the new line would be between 60 and 75 percent of the original estimated expenses for the HS2 segment, though no exact figure was provided. The previous conservative government had estimated saving £36 billion by canceling the northern HS2 line. Space on the existing west coast route would be freed for freight traffic, bypassing the notorious Castlefield Corridor bottleneck in Manchester. In light of the upcoming first budget next month and the government's goal to promote growth and achieve savings, the report proposes a public-private partnership to mitigate public risks and investments. Long-term integration into other projects would provide the construction industry with security, lower costs, and attract private investments. Some investors have already expressed interest. To meet economic needs and preserve the lands originally secured for HS2, the study recommends the establishment of a new body in collaboration with the mayors for further feasibility studies and international investments. Andy Burnham, Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, emphasized the urgency of rapid action to create new rail capacity and connectivity between northern and central England to prevent economic barriers on the western rail route and the M6. A revival of HS2 is not required, but the uncertainty must be promptly resolved.