Global Challenges in the Middle East: U.S. Policy Between Support and Caution

For decades, U.S. Presidents have dreamed of bringing peace to the Middle East. While Jimmy Carter facilitated the Camp David Agreement between Israel and Egypt in 1978, Bill Clinton orchestrated the Oslo Accords with the Palestinians in 1993 and a peace agreement with Jordan the following year. In contrast, Donald Trump concluded the Abraham Accords with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco in 2020. The next President will undoubtedly face tensions between Israel and Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'. The question of how to prevent regional escalation and avoid re-engagement in an endless war remains essential. Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the policies shaped by Joe Biden, supporting Israel's right to self-defense, attempting to contain its most dangerous actions, while keeping the concept of a Palestinian state alive. In contrast, Donald Trump advocates giving Israel free rein. Despite repeated American assurances to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, no President has yet bombed Iran's facilities or granted Israel permission to do so. This restraint reflects the conceivable costs of an escalation, while the benefits seem difficult to weigh. Both Harris and Trump show little inclination toward taking military action against Iran. Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, imposed harsh sanctions, and ordered the killing of Qassem Suleimani in 2020. Nevertheless, he harbored hopes for a deal with the Iranian clerics and avoided striking directly at Iran even in critical moments. A delicate question remains as to whether and how a U.S. President could support an Israeli attack. On its own, Israel could likely cause only limited damage. U.S. assistance could range from providing intelligence to direct military support. No matter how the conflict evolves by January, the next President will have to deal with the polarizing figure of the Israeli Prime Minister. Joe Biden has been critical of Benjamin Netanyahu in the past, an assessment Harris seems to share. Trump also criticized Netanyahu, yet remained loyal to Republicans who believe Israel can do no wrong. Within American politics, support for Israel is deeply rooted, while Iran is viewed as a villain. Harris stated that Iran has 'American blood on its hands', while Biden struggled to moderate Netanyahu, particularly in negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza. Through military aid and participation in missile defense, America supports Israel. After Netanyahu's initial success against Hezbollah ousted its leader, he increasingly speaks of an opportunity to change the reality in Lebanon and the region. Plans to improve conditions for Palestinians, however, seem scarcely present. Both Harris and Trump face the challenge of promoting normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, with the price for such peace potentially increasing with the conflict's duration.