Egg prices on the rise: Avian flu and holidays drive costs up

Egg prices in the USA are once again on the rise, significantly contributing to the current persistent food inflation. An increase of 37.5% year-over-year and up 8.2% from the previous month depict the ongoing volatile egg pricing mechanisms. In November, a dozen large Grade A eggs cost an average of $3.65, surpassing the October average of $3.37, but still below the September value of $3.82. In contrast, at the beginning of 2024, costs were a moderate $2.52. This price increase is mainly due to the continuous impact of avian flu and holiday-related price adjustments. Kevin Bergquist from Wells Fargo explains that costs have risen since the end of 2023 due to the holiday season and the constrained egg supply caused by the avian flu. Despite producers' efforts to rebuild their stocks, production numbers have not yet returned to previous levels. Overall food inflation rose by 2.4% year-over-year, with food prices specifically climbing by 1.6%. The decline in egg production by four percent, according to USDA in October 2024 to 9.19 billion, is presumably influenced by significant losses of 2.8 million laying hens due to avian flu in Utah, Washington, and Oregon. Reflecting on March 2022, when stocks were stable and egg prices were less than $1.50 per dozen wholesale, the current price increases are significant. Early 2023 saw costs hit a record high of $4.82 per dozen, followed by a recovery before avian flu struck again in 2023 and 2024. For 2025, a price drop of an expected $0.85 per dozen below the 2024 average price is anticipated, provided inventory growth can be realized. Tom Flocco, CEO of Pete and Gerry's Eggs, explains that his company's free-range eggs are not affected by avian flu as they do not come from mass production. His extensive network of around 300 farms nationwide protects the eggs from migratory bird flight paths that spread the virus. Despite rising costs, relentless food inflation could continue to boost egg sales.